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<blockquote data-quote="KPRC2" data-source="post: 23768" data-attributes="member: 148">Every year the seasonal hurricane forecasts start rolling in during April and this year they are all pointing to another busy season! An average season brings 14 storms of which 7 become hurricanes and 3 become major. This coming season looks to be above that average with as many as 20 storms and 5 major hurricanes, depending on who you ask. Here are some of the recent forecasts:<img src="https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/20JOT16z_PMn6MHb3Y5B1Jyyo8Q=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/SD6QNZWONNHDHC4FYTAISWHYD4.JPG" alt="Above Normal season predicted" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University also suggests a much higher than normal chance for a major hurricane strike along the Texas coast, 25% versus the average chance of 16%.<img src="https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/ryr7R0uanTWVGL2cYgr2nH-50dw=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/2QKC6YV4H5AFFO7D3WOVNJ3N2I.JPG" alt="Probability of &gt;=1 named storm, hurricane and major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of each coastal state from Texas to Maine. Probabilities are provided for both the 1880–2020 climatological average as well as the probability for 2022, based on the latest CSU seasonal hurricane forecast." class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />You can read the full report from Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project right <a href="https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-04.pdf" target="_blank">here</a>.<h3>A Link to the Past</h3>I’ve blogged about Dale Link before, the engineer who has been forecasting where these hurricanes will actually make landfall. He doesn’t focus on the number of storms which, after all, doesn’t really matter unless one gets you! Although it stands to reason that the more hurricanes there are, the more likely one will make landfall somewhere.Dale’s forecast is for location, location, location. His methodology is pretty simple as he bases the current year’s forecast on what has happened in the past. We’ll discuss accuracy in a moment, but take a look at the VERY busy year he predicts for the USA:<img src="https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/oOC3s3eJMPkq88DxBixeo2dhCak=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/DD2UZU3VM5CDRL265WLGN6YDF4.jpg" alt="The red zones are areas where Dale Link predicts a hurricane will make landfall this coming season" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Link claims an 82% accuracy rate noting “oversight corrections and very close calls”. A couple of interesting notes: in 2009 and 2015 Dale Link forecasted that the US would have no hurricane hits. In 2009, two minimal storms (TS Claudette and Ida) did strike the Central Gulf coast causing minimal damage. In 2015, Tropical Storms Ana and Bill both made a US landfall but neither were hurricanes. Still, to predict zero landfalls in both years and have minimal action is impressive.So how has he done for Southeast Texas since he began all this in 2000? I counted! In 21 years, he has missed seven times for our region and hit it 15 times. Of those seven times he missed, four of them he predicted our area would get hit but we saw nothing (2004, 2012, 2014, 2016) which is a nice bonus. Three years we were hit but he did not forecast it: 2007 we had Erin and Humberto, but I will say that Erin did weaken to a Tropical Depression before moving inland and Humberto just scraped High Island as it moved north. In 2015, TS Bill moved across Wharton County with heavy rain. 2017 was when Harvey called on us.What is even more remarkable to me is that we honestly do not get tropical storms or hurricanes that often, so these are difficult predictions at best. I made a chart for you and you can see that since 2000, we’ve only had 10 years with storms that came ashore. For most of us, TS Allison, Hurricane Ike and TS Harvey were the only three that will be forever memorable.<img src="https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/7OF7jDu3zLLKFcAvl86xSRiJKUw=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/EB4ROOS5QRCDFNABQH3HPMABG4.JPG" alt="There have been other storms that hit south Texas, these are the ones for southeast Texas" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />As we always say, it only takes that one. If you’d like to have a full look at Dale Link’s accuracy, forecasts and methodology you can find that <a href="https://www.dalelink.com/" target="_blank">right here</a>. And for the National Hurricane Center archives I used to write this blog, just go <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2000&amp;basin=atl" target="_blank">here</a>!Frank<a href="mailto:frank@kprc.com">Email me</a> and follow me on Facebook!<a href="https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2022/04/27/where-will-the-hurricanes-go/" target="_blank">Continue reading...</a></blockquote>

[QUOTE="KPRC2, post: 23768, member: 148"] Every year the seasonal hurricane forecasts start rolling in during April and this year they are all pointing to another busy season! An average season brings 14 storms of which 7 become hurricanes and 3 become major. This coming season looks to be above that average with as many as 20 storms and 5 major hurricanes, depending on who you ask. Here are some of the recent forecasts: [IMG alt="Above Normal season predicted"]https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/20JOT16z_PMn6MHb3Y5B1Jyyo8Q=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/SD6QNZWONNHDHC4FYTAISWHYD4.JPG[/IMG] Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University also suggests a much higher than normal chance for a major hurricane strike along the Texas coast, 25% versus the average chance of 16%. [IMG alt="Probability of >=1 named storm, hurricane and major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of each coastal state from Texas to Maine. Probabilities are provided for both the 1880–2020 climatological average as well as the probability for 2022, based on the latest CSU seasonal hurricane forecast."]https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/ryr7R0uanTWVGL2cYgr2nH-50dw=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/2QKC6YV4H5AFFO7D3WOVNJ3N2I.JPG[/IMG] You can read the full report from Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project right [URL='https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-04.pdf']here[/URL]. [HEADING=2]A Link to the Past[/HEADING] I’ve blogged about Dale Link before, the engineer who has been forecasting where these hurricanes will actually make landfall. He doesn’t focus on the number of storms which, after all, doesn’t really matter unless one gets you! Although it stands to reason that the more hurricanes there are, the more likely one will make landfall somewhere. Dale’s forecast is for location, location, location. His methodology is pretty simple as he bases the current year’s forecast on what has happened in the past. We’ll discuss accuracy in a moment, but take a look at the VERY busy year he predicts for the USA: [IMG alt="The red zones are areas where Dale Link predicts a hurricane will make landfall this coming season"]https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/oOC3s3eJMPkq88DxBixeo2dhCak=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/DD2UZU3VM5CDRL265WLGN6YDF4.jpg[/IMG] Link claims an 82% accuracy rate noting “oversight corrections and very close calls”. A couple of interesting notes: in 2009 and 2015 Dale Link forecasted that the US would have no hurricane hits. In 2009, two minimal storms (TS Claudette and Ida) did strike the Central Gulf coast causing minimal damage. In 2015, Tropical Storms Ana and Bill both made a US landfall but neither were hurricanes. Still, to predict zero landfalls in both years and have minimal action is impressive. So how has he done for Southeast Texas since he began all this in 2000? I counted! In 21 years, he has missed seven times for our region and hit it 15 times. Of those seven times he missed, four of them he predicted our area would get hit but we saw nothing (2004, 2012, 2014, 2016) which is a nice bonus. Three years we were hit but he did not forecast it: 2007 we had Erin and Humberto, but I will say that Erin did weaken to a Tropical Depression before moving inland and Humberto just scraped High Island as it moved north. In 2015, TS Bill moved across Wharton County with heavy rain. 2017 was when Harvey called on us. What is even more remarkable to me is that we honestly do not get tropical storms or hurricanes that often, so these are difficult predictions at best. I made a chart for you and you can see that since 2000, we’ve only had 10 years with storms that came ashore. For most of us, TS Allison, Hurricane Ike and TS Harvey were the only three that will be forever memorable. [IMG alt="There have been other storms that hit south Texas, these are the ones for southeast Texas"]https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/7OF7jDu3zLLKFcAvl86xSRiJKUw=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/EB4ROOS5QRCDFNABQH3HPMABG4.JPG[/IMG] As we always say, it only takes that one. If you’d like to have a full look at Dale Link’s accuracy, forecasts and methodology you can find that [URL='https://www.dalelink.com/']right here[/URL]. And for the National Hurricane Center archives I used to write this blog, just go [URL='https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2000&basin=atl']here[/URL]! Frank [EMAIL='frank@kprc.com']Email me[/EMAIL] and follow me on [URL='//facebook.com/frankbillingsley']Facebook[/URL]! [url="https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2022/04/27/where-will-the-hurricanes-go/"]Continue reading...[/url] [/QUOTE]

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