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<blockquote data-quote="KPRC2" data-source="post: 62721" data-attributes="member: 148">A spin of moisture off the Louisiana coast has now caught the attention of the National Hurricane Center and this morning they forecasted a 10% chance of development the next 48 hours (and the next five days, but it will be onshore by then). Expected to move southwest across the gulf, the system is most likely to impact the Brownsville to Corpus area although a few showers tomorrow and Sunday could get thrown our way!But why only a 10% chance? The water is well above the 80° threshold needed for tropical development:<img src="https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/-rKgpx0hnS361zb4Iv8TqeJB8fc=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/EJHYT3PVIJEQVPVFQTOTC35NZA.JPG" alt="The gulf is generally at 86 degrees right now" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />And no strong winds in the upper atmosphere are present to tear the system apart (note the blue color indicates LOW wind shear):<img src="https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/TLSagc0Ozr2jq-ROgvr-U7Q-LGI=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/VLJ6TVZPEJCSNCD6V64RRROK5Q.JPG" alt="Wind Shear is Low" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />So the checklist looks pretty good for something to come of this:<img src="https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/pI4H73B3IMqzCXWdRLnbQKrStRQ=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/YCHXUULNIZALJBPLIXSXUOCXIY.JPG" alt="Potential Development Checklist" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />So why only a 10% chance from the National Hurricane Center? I can’t speak for them, but I will say that neither the American Model nor the European model develops a closed circulation with the system. The key to an upgrade for a tropical cyclone is organization--winds from every direction indicating such a closed system. Here are both models right now and all you see is a disorganized system of rain:<img src="https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/h_G6PgJMNmWCdPJnTWNCM8kHUaI=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/7TPGS7LRPJHYVASRQ7E5YLUOGQ.gif" alt="Heavy Rain in South Texas courtesy tropicaltidbits.com" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /><img src="https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/9IkDrP1ieQ1c6hRkho_EzNFY8vM=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/PIF5KAQXWZB23JEIWAMMGRVCME.gif" alt="Heaviest rain in South Texas courtesy weathermodels.com" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />In fact, the National Hurricane Center forecasts winds below 30mph with wave heights in the 3-5′ range around Corpus on Sunday so not much of a strong cyclone expected. But as for rain, this could be a soaker for south Texas with as much as 6-8″ of rain in spots and just like us, they need it:<img src="https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/U84wzQrEVpBrksoztn27Xl2eIog=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/4VI7GYSCDRFPXMR3APLBKTREXU.JPG" alt="Rainfall Totals through Sunday" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Our rain chances will depend on just where this system ends up being located and how strong it becomes---the farther away from us will give us lower rain chances. Whether this really develops into a full tropical depression or storm (the next name is DANIELLE) is to be seen, but the bottom line is that the tropical season is ramping up now and this is the first evidence of it. Don’t let your guard down!Frank<a href="mailto:frank@kprc.com">Email me</a> and follow me on <a href="https://facebook.com/frankbillingsley" target="_blank">Facebook</a>!<a href="https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2022/08/12/the-gulf-awakens/" target="_blank">Continue reading...</a></blockquote>

[QUOTE="KPRC2, post: 62721, member: 148"] A spin of moisture off the Louisiana coast has now caught the attention of the National Hurricane Center and this morning they forecasted a 10% chance of development the next 48 hours (and the next five days, but it will be onshore by then). Expected to move southwest across the gulf, the system is most likely to impact the Brownsville to Corpus area although a few showers tomorrow and Sunday could get thrown our way! But why only a 10% chance? The water is well above the 80° threshold needed for tropical development: [IMG alt="The gulf is generally at 86 degrees right now"]https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/-rKgpx0hnS361zb4Iv8TqeJB8fc=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/EJHYT3PVIJEQVPVFQTOTC35NZA.JPG[/IMG] And no strong winds in the upper atmosphere are present to tear the system apart (note the blue color indicates LOW wind shear): [IMG alt="Wind Shear is Low"]https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/TLSagc0Ozr2jq-ROgvr-U7Q-LGI=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/VLJ6TVZPEJCSNCD6V64RRROK5Q.JPG[/IMG] So the checklist looks pretty good for something to come of this: [IMG alt="Potential Development Checklist"]https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/pI4H73B3IMqzCXWdRLnbQKrStRQ=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/YCHXUULNIZALJBPLIXSXUOCXIY.JPG[/IMG] So why only a 10% chance from the National Hurricane Center? I can’t speak for them, but I will say that neither the American Model nor the European model develops a closed circulation with the system. The key to an upgrade for a tropical cyclone is organization--winds from every direction indicating such a closed system. Here are both models right now and all you see is a disorganized system of rain: [IMG alt="Heavy Rain in South Texas courtesy tropicaltidbits.com"]https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/h_G6PgJMNmWCdPJnTWNCM8kHUaI=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/7TPGS7LRPJHYVASRQ7E5YLUOGQ.gif[/IMG][IMG alt="Heaviest rain in South Texas courtesy weathermodels.com"]https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/9IkDrP1ieQ1c6hRkho_EzNFY8vM=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/PIF5KAQXWZB23JEIWAMMGRVCME.gif[/IMG] In fact, the National Hurricane Center forecasts winds below 30mph with wave heights in the 3-5′ range around Corpus on Sunday so not much of a strong cyclone expected. But as for rain, this could be a soaker for south Texas with as much as 6-8″ of rain in spots and just like us, they need it: [IMG alt="Rainfall Totals through Sunday"]https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/U84wzQrEVpBrksoztn27Xl2eIog=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/4VI7GYSCDRFPXMR3APLBKTREXU.JPG[/IMG] Our rain chances will depend on just where this system ends up being located and how strong it becomes---the farther away from us will give us lower rain chances. Whether this really develops into a full tropical depression or storm (the next name is DANIELLE) is to be seen, but the bottom line is that the tropical season is ramping up now and this is the first evidence of it. Don’t let your guard down! Frank [EMAIL='frank@kprc.com']Email me[/EMAIL] and follow me on [URL='https://facebook.com/frankbillingsley']Facebook[/URL]! [url="https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2022/08/12/the-gulf-awakens/"]Continue reading...[/url] [/QUOTE]

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