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<blockquote data-quote="KJ" data-source="post: 73765" data-attributes="member: 1">[URL unfurl=&quot;true&quot;]https://web.archive.org/web/20150219102620/http://netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Energy%20Analysis/Publications/DOE-NETL-2007-1263-PeakingWorldOilProd-RecentForecasts.pdf[/URL]<ul>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">World oil peaking is going to happen, and will likely be abrupt.<ul>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">World production of conventional oil will reach a maximum and decline thereafter.</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Some forecasters project peaking within a decade; others contend it will occur later.</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Peaking will happen, but the timing is uncertain.</li>
</ul></li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Oil peaking will adversely affect global economies, particularly the U.S.<ul>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Over the past century, the U.S. economy has been shaped by the availability of low-cost oil.</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">The economic loss to the United States could be measured on a trillion-dollar scale.</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Aggressive <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_efficiency" target="_blank">fuel efficiency</a> and substitute fuel production could provide substantial mitigation.</li>
</ul></li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Oil peaking presents a unique challenge.<ul>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Without massive mitigation, the problem will be pervasive and long-term.</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Previous energy transitions (wood to coal and coal to oil) were gradual and evolutionary.</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.</li>
</ul></li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">The problem is liquid fuels for transportation.<ul>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">The lifetimes of transportation equipment are measured in decades.</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Rapid changeover in transportation equipment is inherently impossible.</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Motor vehicles, aircraft, trains, and ships have no ready alternative to liquid fuels.</li>
</ul></li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Mitigation efforts will require substantial time.<ul>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Waiting until production peaks would leave the world with a liquid fuel deficit for 20 years.</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Initiating a crash program 10 years before peaking leaves a liquid fuels shortfall of a decade.</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Initiating a crash program 20 years before peaking could avoid a world liquid fuels shortfall.</li>
</ul></li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Both supply and demand will require attention.<ul>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Sustained high <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_of_oil" target="_blank">oil prices</a> will cause forced demand reduction (recession and unemployment).</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Production of large amounts of substitute liquid fuels can and must be provided.</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">The production of substitute liquid fuels is technically and economically feasible.</li>
</ul></li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">It is a matter of risk management.<ul>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">The peaking of world oil production is a classic risk management problem.</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Mitigation efforts earlier than required may be premature, if peaking is long delayed.</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">On the other hand, if peaking is soon, failure to initiate mitigation could be extremely damaging.</li>
</ul></li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Government intervention will be required. 
<ul>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">The economic and social implications of oil peaking would otherwise be chaotic.</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Expediency may require major changes to existing administrative and regulatory procedures.</li>
</ul></li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Economic upheaval is not inevitable.<ul>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Without mitigation, the peaking of world oil production will cause major economic upheaval.</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Given enough lead-time, the problems are soluble with existing technologies.</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">New technologies will help, but on a longer time scale.</li>
</ul></li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">More information is needed.<ul>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Effective action to combat peaking requires better understanding of the issues.</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Risks and possible benefits of possible mitigation actions need to be examined.</li>
</ul></li>
</ul></blockquote>

[QUOTE="KJ, post: 73765, member: 1"] [URL unfurl="true"]https://web.archive.org/web/20150219102620/http://netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Energy%20Analysis/Publications/DOE-NETL-2007-1263-PeakingWorldOilProd-RecentForecasts.pdf[/URL] [LIST] [*]World oil peaking is going to happen, and will likely be abrupt. [LIST] [*]World production of conventional oil will reach a maximum and decline thereafter. [*]Some forecasters project peaking within a decade; others contend it will occur later. [*][B]Peaking will happen,[/B] but the timing is uncertain. [/LIST] [*]Oil peaking will adversely affect global economies, particularly the U.S. [LIST] [*]Over the past century, the U.S. economy has been shaped by the availability of low-cost oil. [*][B]The economic loss to the United States could be measured on a trillion-dollar scale.[/B] [*]Aggressive [URL='https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_efficiency']fuel efficiency[/URL] and substitute fuel production could provide substantial mitigation. [/LIST] [*]Oil peaking presents a unique challenge. [LIST] [*][B]Without massive mitigation, the problem will be pervasive and long-term.[/B] [*]Previous energy transitions (wood to coal and coal to oil) were gradual and evolutionary. [*][B]Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.[/B] [/LIST] [*]The problem is liquid fuels for transportation. [LIST] [*]The lifetimes of transportation equipment are measured in decades. [*]Rapid changeover in transportation equipment is inherently impossible. [*]Motor vehicles, aircraft, trains, and ships have no ready alternative to liquid fuels. [/LIST] [*]Mitigation efforts will require substantial time. [LIST] [*]Waiting until production peaks would leave the world with a liquid fuel deficit for 20 years. [*]Initiating a crash program 10 years before peaking leaves a liquid fuels shortfall of a decade. [*]Initiating a crash program 20 years before peaking could avoid a world liquid fuels shortfall. [/LIST] [*]Both supply and demand will require attention. [LIST] [*][B][B]Sustained high [URL='https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_of_oil']oil prices[/URL] will cause forced demand reduction (recession and unemployment).[/B][/B] [*]Production of large amounts of substitute liquid fuels can and must be provided. [*]The production of substitute liquid fuels is technically and economically feasible. [/LIST] [*]It is a matter of risk management. [LIST] [*]The peaking of world oil production is a classic risk management problem. [*]Mitigation efforts earlier than required may be premature, if peaking is long delayed. [*]On the other hand, if peaking is soon, failure to initiate mitigation could be extremely damaging. [/LIST] [*][B]Government intervention will be required. [LIST] [*][B]The economic and social implications of oil peaking would otherwise be chaotic.[/B] [*]Expediency may require major changes to existing administrative and regulatory procedures. [/LIST][/B] [*]Economic upheaval is not inevitable. [LIST] [*]Without mitigation, the peaking of world oil production will cause major economic upheaval. [*]Given enough lead-time, the problems are soluble with existing technologies. [*]New technologies will help, but on a longer time scale. [/LIST] [*]More information is needed. [LIST] [*]Effective action to combat peaking requires better understanding of the issues. [*]Risks and possible benefits of possible mitigation actions need to be examined. [/LIST] [/LIST] [/QUOTE]

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