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<blockquote data-quote="KPRC2" data-source="post: 44386" data-attributes="member: 148">This is not supposed to happen this early! Disturbances off the coast of Africa that slide all the way across the Atlantic are more of an August/September occurrence, not late June, but here we are with a 60% chance for development over the next five days. See the orange cone below and you can note that it heads straight toward the Caribbean.<img src="https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/AfmiJfJQ4GzkChzc1KdM4p0IH6M=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/MY7DH3GQVJDIDKJ67UI4Y5SAUQ.JPG" alt="courtesy National Hurricane Center" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />But here is some spaghetti for you--the wind shear map over the Caribbean currently has very strong wind which is unfavorable for development. Right now, the map below shows 50mph winds in the upper levels and those are the RED lines. I added where Cuba is for reference:<img src="https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/5MiXJeUKhUP6VlJRLrA9M3NmC5E=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/MPTZSY7UUVAF7HX4XTZGJCFDFI.JPG" alt="Unfavorable wind shear for tropical development" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />That wind may calm down enough for Bonnie to take hold and, interestingly, both the EURO and the AMERICAN models have the storm developing and moving west toward Central America from the middle of next week to July 2nd. The American pumps the storm to a CAT 2 with 100mph winds at landfall in Nicaragua:<img src="https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/Ae4Ca_T6Zm2qmkrbsVesVna-rQ8=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/BGNSEGKET5DVFO5HDEB6S7VPNE.gif" alt="courtesy Tropicaltidbits.com" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /><img src="https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/IQfcDkeHKNysvdMUUlrBTh4O61g=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/QD5TXWVXZBECTH5QHUGSZYIQF4.gif" alt="courtesy weathermodels.com" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />So, for now, if Bonnie develops, it stays well south of the Gulf of Mexico thanks to High Pressure blocking it:<img src="https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/0lSV9U7fZDHYq0WSxlU9shO3jio=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/ZFXXRMJWGJF2RA5DYVQTMXFJRM.JPG" alt="courtesy tropicaltidbits.com" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Saying all that, this tropical situation is early in the game and, as we know, this can all change by next week. We’ll keep a close eye on it so make sure to bookmark our <a href="https://www.click2houston.com/hurricane/" target="_blank">Hurricane Page</a>.Have a COOL weekend and Happy PRIDE!Frank<a href="mailto:frank@kprc.com">Email me</a> and follow me on <a href="https://facebook.com/frankbillingsley" target="_blank">Facebook</a>!<a href="https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2022/06/24/bonnie-brewing/" target="_blank">Continue reading...</a></blockquote>

[QUOTE="KPRC2, post: 44386, member: 148"] This is not supposed to happen this early! Disturbances off the coast of Africa that slide all the way across the Atlantic are more of an August/September occurrence, not late June, but here we are with a 60% chance for development over the next five days. See the orange cone below and you can note that it heads straight toward the Caribbean. [IMG alt="courtesy National Hurricane Center"]https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/AfmiJfJQ4GzkChzc1KdM4p0IH6M=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/MY7DH3GQVJDIDKJ67UI4Y5SAUQ.JPG[/IMG] But here is some spaghetti for you--the wind shear map over the Caribbean currently has very strong wind which is unfavorable for development. Right now, the map below shows 50mph winds in the upper levels and those are the RED lines. I added where Cuba is for reference: [IMG alt="Unfavorable wind shear for tropical development"]https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/5MiXJeUKhUP6VlJRLrA9M3NmC5E=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/MPTZSY7UUVAF7HX4XTZGJCFDFI.JPG[/IMG] That wind may calm down enough for Bonnie to take hold and, interestingly, both the EURO and the AMERICAN models have the storm developing and moving west toward Central America from the middle of next week to July 2nd. The American pumps the storm to a CAT 2 with 100mph winds at landfall in Nicaragua: [IMG alt="courtesy Tropicaltidbits.com"]https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/Ae4Ca_T6Zm2qmkrbsVesVna-rQ8=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/BGNSEGKET5DVFO5HDEB6S7VPNE.gif[/IMG][IMG alt="courtesy weathermodels.com"]https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/IQfcDkeHKNysvdMUUlrBTh4O61g=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/QD5TXWVXZBECTH5QHUGSZYIQF4.gif[/IMG] So, for now, if Bonnie develops, it stays well south of the Gulf of Mexico thanks to High Pressure blocking it: [IMG alt="courtesy tropicaltidbits.com"]https://www.click2houston.com/resizer/0lSV9U7fZDHYq0WSxlU9shO3jio=/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gmg/ZFXXRMJWGJF2RA5DYVQTMXFJRM.JPG[/IMG] Saying all that, this tropical situation is early in the game and, as we know, this can all change by next week. We’ll keep a close eye on it so make sure to bookmark our [URL='https://www.click2houston.com/hurricane/']Hurricane Page[/URL]. Have a COOL weekend and Happy PRIDE! Frank [EMAIL='frank@kprc.com']Email me[/EMAIL] and follow me on [URL='https://facebook.com/frankbillingsley']Facebook[/URL]! [url="https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2022/06/24/bonnie-brewing/"]Continue reading...[/url] [/QUOTE]

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