- World oil peaking is going to happen, and will likely be abrupt.
- World production of conventional oil will reach a maximum and decline thereafter.
- Some forecasters project peaking within a decade; others contend it will occur later.
- Peaking will happen, but the timing is uncertain.
- Oil peaking will adversely affect global economies, particularly the U.S.
- Over the past century, the U.S. economy has been shaped by the availability of low-cost oil.
- The economic loss to the United States could be measured on a trillion-dollar scale.
- Aggressive fuel efficiency and substitute fuel production could provide substantial mitigation.
- Oil peaking presents a unique challenge.
- Without massive mitigation, the problem will be pervasive and long-term.
- Previous energy transitions (wood to coal and coal to oil) were gradual and evolutionary.
- Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.
- The problem is liquid fuels for transportation.
- The lifetimes of transportation equipment are measured in decades.
- Rapid changeover in transportation equipment is inherently impossible.
- Motor vehicles, aircraft, trains, and ships have no ready alternative to liquid fuels.
- Mitigation efforts will require substantial time.
- Waiting until production peaks would leave the world with a liquid fuel deficit for 20 years.
- Initiating a crash program 10 years before peaking leaves a liquid fuels shortfall of a decade.
- Initiating a crash program 20 years before peaking could avoid a world liquid fuels shortfall.
- Both supply and demand will require attention.
- Sustained high oil prices will cause forced demand reduction (recession and unemployment).
- Production of large amounts of substitute liquid fuels can and must be provided.
- The production of substitute liquid fuels is technically and economically feasible.
- It is a matter of risk management.
- The peaking of world oil production is a classic risk management problem.
- Mitigation efforts earlier than required may be premature, if peaking is long delayed.
- On the other hand, if peaking is soon, failure to initiate mitigation could be extremely damaging.
- Government intervention will be required.
- The economic and social implications of oil peaking would otherwise be chaotic.
- Expediency may require major changes to existing administrative and regulatory procedures.
- Economic upheaval is not inevitable.
- Without mitigation, the peaking of world oil production will cause major economic upheaval.
- Given enough lead-time, the problems are soluble with existing technologies.
- New technologies will help, but on a longer time scale.
- More information is needed.
- Effective action to combat peaking requires better understanding of the issues.
- Risks and possible benefits of possible mitigation actions need to be examined.
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